Archive for category Economics

Sterling Falls: Good News for Publishers, Bad News for Advertisers

God save the Queen
Creative Commons License photo: BraNewbs

As a webmaster and publisher, what exactly does the credit crunch and the dramatic falls in the value of the pound mean for you? (This article is primarily targeted at a UK audience).

I feel that this is a seldom discussed issue as very few publishers are fully aware of exchange rates and the impact on their ability to make money. In this article, I will discuss the consequences for British publishers of the dramatic falls of the value of the pound and the possible business opportunities here.

What’s happened?

I’m sure we’re all sick about hearing about the credit crunch… the global financial crisis. I’ve found myself avoiding the news because quite frankly I’ve had enough of hearing about our financial woes. As the chancellor of the UK has just admitted, it looks like the UK will be entering a recession. Economists say a country is in recession if its total economic output (a proxy for quality of life) falls for two successive quarters. Because of the bad news about the UK economy, investors have been rapidly moving money out of the Sterling. This has caused the value of Sterling to plunge. According to Google Finance, Sterling was sitting very close to 2 dollars to 1 pound a couple of months ago. It today plunged as low as 1.53 dollars to 1 pound. And analysts are predicting a further drop down towards 1.4 dollars per pound.

What does that mean?

facing the ocean
Creative Commons License photo: numberstumper

The weaker pound is good news for exporters, and bad news for importers. Web advertising is somewhat unique in that almost all advertising networks trade in dollars. So publishers export advertising to the rest of the world (they sell advertising in dollars) whilst advertisers import it from the rest of the world (they buy advertising in dollars).  Let me clarify:

A website publisher earning $10,000 per month would have recieved about £5,000 per month. If the value of the Sterling falls to 1.4 dollars, that income increases to £7,140 per month. That equates to £25,000 of extra income every year.

However, it’s bad news for advertisers. An advertiser spending $10,000 per month would have to shell out £7,140 per month instead of £5,000 - a price increase of almost 50%.

As the audience of this blog tends to include a large number of web developers, especially from the UK, this is good news for you. In fact, if you haven’t thought about monetising your blog or website, it’s well worth doing now.

It’s not necessarily good news though…

piles
Creative Commons License photo: pfala (injured)

The more eagle eyed readers will have noticed something. As it’s costing more for British advertisers to place adverts, they’ll place less of them and be willing to pay less money to advertise. So even if the exchange rate of the pound falls, the actual amount of income recieved might not actually go up as much as expected. Right? Kind of.

If your website caters for British audiences then it is likely the vast majority of your advertisers will be British companies. If you’re selling advertising to a British company, you’re not really exporting anything - only selling it to a domestic company, but using dollars.

If you cater for international audiences and companies, you’ll be a winner.

But what else about the financial crisis?

Well, regardless of exchange rates, companies are a lot less likely to advertise right now. Given we’re entering a recession, money is tight. Companies cannot be confident about how much money they really have available and whether consumers will respond to their advertising. Like for everybody else, the financial crisis is bad news for exporters too.

Whether the fall of Sterling is a long-term correction or just a short-term blip, I can’t say. But what’s important for us to all realise is that the game has totally changed. We need to rethink the way we all spend our money. But in the very short term, I believe there is a big opportunity in the market for British publishers.

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A Guide: How to save the Amazon Rainforest and the Environment

schooling bannerfish school
Creative Commons License photo: jon hanson

It was interesting to open up BBC News and to read the article “Ownership key to saving fisheries“. In brief, essentially scientists have surveyed fisheries across the world and found that giving fishermen long-term ownership of fisheries is the way to keep stocks at a sustainable level. It’s a vindication of basic economics.

In this article, I want to discuss the issue of deforestation in the Amazon - one of the biggest environmental issues facing the world. I’ll run through a simple demonstration on how we could preserve the Amazon Rainforest using the exact same principle as that used in the Amazon.

The Amazon Rainforest

The Amazon Rainforest encompasses 1.4 billion acres (5.5 million square kilometres). In the 10 years from 1991 to 2000, about 500,000 square km of the Amazon was lost to deforestation. It’s been estimated that 17.1% of the Amazon has been lost to deforestation since the 1970. And at the present rate of deforestation, the Amazon Rainforest will be reduced by 40% by 2020.

That’s a big problem for all of us. The Amazon is a huge carbon sink - it locks away huge amounts of the greenhouse gas CO2. Deforestation not only reduces the world’s capacity to lock away CO2; it leads to the release of CO2 too. The existence of the Amazon Rainforest has huge benefits for all of us.

Sustainable logging in Sandakan (FSC certified)
Creative Commons License photo: angela7dreams

Ask a typical person on the street how to solve the problem of deforestation and you’ll get answers such as: prevent illegal logging or ban deforestation of the Amazon.

But then put yourself in the position of somebody who lives in or near the Amazon. Obviously, you’ll need to feed your family and make a living. Cut down some trees and sell the timber to make a bit of money. Use the land to farm and to graze cattle and to feed your family.

I think it’s extremely unfair for anybody to tell the people who live in the Amazon they can’t do this. I mean, how are they expected to make a living otherwise? Sure, we all lose out from the deforestation because it contributes to climate change. But it’s only fair that the people living in the Amazon should primarily be allowed to look after themselves and their families in the only way they have.

The Problem with Al Gore’s Public Commons

In 1989, Al Gore said:

Contrary to what Brazilians think, the Amazon is not their property, it belongs to all of us.

Essentially, Al Gore was blaming the Brazilians for cutting what does not belong to them - the Amazon.

Here’s the problem of a public commons. It could get a little mathematical, so bear with me.

Let us, hypothetically, say that a single acre of the Amazon Rainforest benefits everybody in the world by one millionth of a dollar. Every acre of the rainforest locks away CO2… that’s good news

Morning in the Amazon...
Creative Commons License photo: markg6

According to Google, the current world population is 6.6 billion. So the economic value to society of an acre of rainforest would be $6,600.

Now, we’ll enter the mindset of somebody living in the Amazon (call him Barack). Just like the rest of us, Barack benefits from lower CO2 levels by one millionth of a dollar. CO2 levels don’t have any local effects so we can make this assumption the benefits are the same for everybody. So the economic value to the private individual (Barack) is $1/1,000,000.

Barack could choose to cut down this acre of rainforest. He can sell the wood, and then he can graze his cattle on the cleared land. That’ll probably make him a good $2,000 or so.

So Barack has two choices:

  • Cut down the rainforest and make $2,000 of money
  • Leave the rainforest standing; benefiting him by $1/1,000,000 in a lower CO2 level.

It’s quite obvious to see that Barack will cut down the rainforest. He doesn’t care about the rest of us who all lose out by a millionth of a dollar - in fact it’s such a small amount that none of us would really make a big fuss about it. Would you make a fuss about a millionth of a dollar?

But look at it from a global perspective: as a global community, we’re all losing out on the rainforest worth $6,000 and getting timber and beef which is only worth $2,000 to us. As a community, we’re made $4,600 worse off by Barack’s decision.

We can pay Barack to preserve the rainforest

Tehran Sky
Creative Commons License photo: Hamed Saber

So here’s a proposal. What if we gave Barack the deeds to that acre of rainforest? He’ll own it and have responsibility to look after it. In fact, we’ll collectively give Barack a sum of $4,000 to preserve that rainforest because we know we’re getting a lot of good out of it.

Now Barack has two options:

  • Cut down the rainforest and make $2,000 of money
  • Leave the rainforest standing and make $4,000 of money

It’s a no brainer. Barack will preserve the forest.

Now look at it from a global perspective. Collectively, the global community is benefiting by $6,600 from Barack’s acre of rainforest. But we’re only paying him $4,000 to preserve it - so we’re collectively made better off by $2,600 by Barack’s decision to save the rainforest. Everybody wins from property rights.

To sum it all up…

Without property rights: Barack cuts down the rainforest. Barack makes $2,000. The world loses out by $4,600. CO2 levels rise.

With property rights: Barack preserves the rainforest. Barack makes $4,000. The world benefits by $2,600. CO2 levels fall.

So there we have it. The big environmental issues won’t be solved by telling other people what to do, banning deforestation or giving money to people to plant trees. We don’t need to wait for scientific advances to fix the environment. We just need some open-minded thinking and some basic economics.

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Beerconomics: More on the economics at Reading Festival

Economics, simply, is the study of incentives. It’s absolutely fascinating to me because it’s a triumph of mathematical logic over subjective guesswork. It’s applicable to every day life and it answers the big questions on how we can solve the big issues facing society today.

enjoy
Creative Commons License photo: jared

Recently, I went to Reading Festival. It’s a weekend music festival with 80,000 people. And as you can imagine, there are some huge effects on the environment from such an event. People burn and dump all kinds of things around the site, leaving both air and ground pollution behind. Not only is it bad for the environment, it’s potentially harmful to the health of the music fans who attend the festival.

I want to focus on three specific issues at Reading Festival:

  • There is a huge amount of litter around the site. People don’t bother putting their rubbish in the bin.
  • Those who are more considerate for the environment often find the bins will overflow from the sheer amount of trash. Because of the overflowing trash, the busiest parts of the arena had a very pungent foul-smelling stench. And it cost a lot of money for the festival to employ people to regularly empty the bins.
  • Some revellers at the festival insist on throwing the contents of their drinks over huge crowds of people, especially in crowded tents. This is a huge nuisance and it’s highly unhygenic. Several friends of mine have told me of instances of people relieving themselves in paper cups and then throwing these over crowds of people - frankly a very disgusting and antisocial thing to do. There is also a risk of injury to the person hit by the bottle/cup.

The festival has a paper cup deposit scheme. The scheme is very simple and straightforward and in my opinion did a great job at changing some of the incentives to reduce litter and anti-social behavior.

It worked by placing a deposit of 10p on the cup which each drink was sold in. A pint of beer would cost somewhere in the region of £3.50 ($7) which would include 10p which would be refunded when the cup was returned.

This created positive incentives for several different groups of people.

Those who’d have littered:

easy money
Creative Commons License photo: bobcat rock

The 10p deposit multiplied by the number of drinks consumed over the whole weekend and the number of people in the group would have added up to a fair bit of money. I saw many people who had stacked up whole piles of cups in their backpacks, obviously with the intention of getting their deposits back at the end.

Some people would continue to litter. They would lose their 10p deposit which goes into the coffers to employ somebody who would tidy up the litter.

Those who were anti-social:

The deposit also creates a disincentive to throw the contents of your drink over large crowds of people for the same reasons: you’d never get your 10p back. I would say that this is actually quite a weak incentive as I still saw a fair amount of this happening. Whether me and my friends were drenched in cups of beer, water or urine I’ll never know. But whatever it was, I’m sure it would have been more of a frequent occurance if the deposit system didn’t exist to encourage people to hold on to their empty drink cups.

Those who were environmentally conscious:

IMG_1662
Creative Commons License photo: Matthew Johnston

I’d like to believe the vast majority of people would look for a bin to throw their rubbish into. For those people, it wouldn’t be any harder for them to hand them in to get a 10p deposit back instead. It’s a great way of rewarding environmentally conscious behaviour.

There are even more environmentally conscious people in society who would pick up other people’s litter in order to keep their own towns, cities and streets clean. Unfortunately, this doesn’t happen at festivals because nobody actually lives there - for 360 days a year, they don’t benefit from a cleaner environment at Reading Festival.

The 10p deposit rewarded these more environmentally conscious people and gave them incentives to keep the place tidy. I saw two enterprising girls who, in the interval between two acts, walked through the arena collecting the cups which people had left behind or thrown. They could probably have got a free lunch from the amount of deposit money recieved from returning the cups.

For the festival organisers:

The scheme costs very little. It saves the festival organisers money - the bins don’t fill up as quickly and litter in busy areas (where it would cause the most discomfort to revellers) would quickly be picked up by the revellers themselves. And there is no reason to think that the 10p price hike on all drinks would have caused a fall in sales, because everybody knew they’d get that money back.

Conclusions

Grapefruit Splash
Creative Commons License photo: Steven Fernandez

This, in my opinion, is economics at it’s best. A scheme which benefits everybody - the organisers who recieve additional funds towards cleanup and have less to cleanup, the music fans who benefit from a more hygenic festival experience and the entrepreneurs who benefit from free lunches at the same time as helping to keep the environment clean. Best of all, it barely costs anybody anything.

Some of the big problems facing society today such as the environment can be solved with bottom-up approaches, harnessing the power of crowd-sourcing and economic incentives. These solutions are simpler, cheaper and infinitely more effective than the centrally-planned approaches such as employing huge armies of litter pickers. That, to me, is the beauty of good economics.

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Music Festival Rip-Off?

Mud
Creative Commons License photo: burge5000

I’m going to Reading Festival this weekend which 80,000 music fans are expected to attend. It’s my second music festival and I can’t wait! Reading Festival certainly isn’t cheap. For many teenagers of my age with only part-time jobs, the cost of Reading Festival (£155 + p&p, other spending) is at least a whole months wages. £155 could buy a lot else. So are music festivals a big rip off? Well, obviously it’s a personal and a subjective opinion. I’d argue that at £155, it’s great value. Here’s why.

Two facts: Tickets for Reading Festival sold out very quickly - less than two hours. Tickets on the black market (eBay) have gone as high as £300 each. A friend of mine was offered £500 for his ticket.

As an economist, this indicates to me that, in fact, music festival tickets are under priced. In economics, we have something which is called the equilibrium price. This is the price for which supply equals demand. For example, if 80,000 people want a ticket at a price and 80,000 tickets are available at that price, the market is said to be in equilibrium.

Carling Leeds Festival 2004
Creative Commons License photo: Ian Wilson

In the case of Reading Festival, it is obvious that at the price of £155, more people want tickets than the number of tickets which are available. So the organisers could increase the price of a ticket and still sell out to capacity.

Why is that a problem? Surely the fact that tickets are “too cheap” is good news for festival goers such as you and I. We’re saving money after all aren’t we? Kind of.

Firstly, it’s a waste of everybody’s time to queue up overnight for tickets, or to have to keep refreshing a website to buy them.

Secondly, there is the problem of the black market. People are buying tickets for £155 and selling them on the black market (i.e. eBay) for double that. That means £150 of profit has gone towards a ticket tout, who has served no useful purpose at all, as opposed to towards the organisers who could put the money into improving the festival for everyone.

Roskilde Festival 2004 - Det første indtryk
Creative Commons License photo: Stig Nygaard

The black market is also a dangerous and difficult place to deal. Many fans bought tickets on unofficial sites such as SOS Tickets and never received them. They’re now disappointed they can’t go and may have difficulty in getting their money back. And the sole reason why people had to turn to the black market in the first place is because they can’t get them from legitimate agents, so it’s as a direct result of below equilibrium prices.

There are several reasons why Reading festival may have been under priced. It’s possible that the organisers wanted publicity from queues outside stores, and being able to announce that it sold out within 2 hours on the news headlines. Or they simply didn’t expect demand to be so high.

Reading Festival tickets are cheaper than they should be. For the lucky ones amongst us who were at the front of the line to get tickets, that’s great news - we’re getting a bargain. But for everyone else, it’s bad news. It leads to a secondary market, and that’s a recipe for being ripped off, scammed and paying vastly over-the-odd sums: most of which doesn’t even go to the festival organisers.

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Economic Warfare

Dollars !
Creative Commons License photo: pfala

When I was in America I saw a television news chat show where some of the contributors were suggesting that the US was under “economic attack”. That is instead of using guns to fight back in the “War on Terror”, rogue states were deliberately increasing the prices of food and gas to cripple the US economy. It sounds a little ridiculous to me but the idea of fighting a war by attacking an economy isn’t a new idea.

In World War 2, there was a German plan called Operation Bernhard. The aim was to attack the British economy by flooding the country with forged British banknotes. The forged currency would have served two purposes. The British would sell goods (exports) in exchange for counterfeit currency which is obviously no use.

Secondly, an excessive amount of money would lead to inflation. For those who do not study economics, when there is more money chasing the same amount of goods, prices must rise. This is inflation. We only have to look at Zimbabwe to see an example of how much harm inflation can do to an economy. When inflation and uncertainty is high, businesses might not have the confidence to produce the products which people need and we can see why that’s a big problem. If they’re not producing the products, then unemployment goes up too.

The CIA believe that the North Koreans are printing counterfeit US currency (superdollars) to destabilise the US economy.

But it’s not just counterfeit currency: so much of the functioning of our economy relies on confidence.

Geld
Creative Commons License photo: Henry.

If people expect shares to fall, they sell them. By selling them, they cause them to fall. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If we think inflation will be 10% next year, we’ll all ask for a 10% pay rise so that our real take home pay doesn’t fall. But if we all ask for 10% pay rises, that’ll lead to 10% inflation. Another self-fulfilling prophecy.

Isn’t it concievable to think that by planting false information and priming people to believe negative things about the economy, someone could do some serious harm to our economy?

Perhaps it isn’t such a ridiculous suggestion after all. I don’t believe that the credit crunch and rising fuel & food costs are due to “economic terrorism”. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it became a major instrument of warfare alongside cyber warfare in the future.

Similarly, we must ask the same questions about economic warfare as we must ask about cyber warfare.

  • Does economic warfare or an economic attack count as a declaration of war?
  • Is a country allowed to respond to an economic attack through conventional means?
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How Distributed Grid Computing Could Cut Costs and Help the Environment

Cat-5 Cable
Creative Commons License photo: Darren Hester

The dream of distributed computing (or grid computing) is that it can cut the costs of computing and cut carbon emissions. In this post, I am to explain how it works.

Let us imagine a scenario where both Carl and Daniel have computers. Carl has a computer which is twice as efficient - that is it costs him half as much to do the same thing on his computer. Let’s say it costs £1 in electricity for Carl to run a computer model; and £2 for Daniel. In total, it costs £3 to society to run the computer model once for Carl and once for Daniel.

Cost to Carl: £1
Cost to Daniel: £2
Total Cost to Society: £3

With Distributed Computing

Now imagine the same scenario but with one addition: distributed computing. As it costs Carl less money to run the model on his computer than it would cost Daniel, Daniel could pay Carl to run the model for him. Imagine that Daniel paid Carl £1.50. It only costs Carl £1 to run the model Daniel’s model for him, but he has gained £1.50 for his effort giving him a profit of 50p. Daniel only spends £1.50 to have his model run, as opposed to the £2 which it would have cost him to run the model himself.

Everybody benefits by saving money and the end result is the same: Carl and Daniel have both had their model run.

Cost to Carl: 50p (£1 to run his own model, subtract 50p profit from running Daniel’s model)
Cost to Daniel: £1.50 (He pays Carl £1.50 to run his model for him)
Total Cost to Society: £2

What assumptions have we made?

DC-10-30F
Creative Commons License photo: Ack Ook

There are no costs involved in the transaction itself. Imagine that it costs £2 for Daniel to send a copy of the computer model to Carl and then to receive the results. If Daniel had to print out instructions on how to use the model, then FedEx it to Carl and wait several weeks to see the results of the model, that’s perfectly conceivable. In this case, it costs of Daniel asking Carl to run the model for him would be £3 (£1 for Carl to run the model on his computer and £2 in transaction costs). In this case, he might as well have run it himself. Real world transaction costs would include slow network connections and incompatibilities between different computer systems. So for distributed computing to work we need fast, reliable network connections and software compatibility.

Daniel would happily allow Carl to run the model for him. Are there privacy implications for example? Daniel must be confident that he can allow Carl to run the model for him and be equally confident that Carl couldn’t have a peek at the results of his model. After all, there might be trade secrets in there. Similarly, Carl must be confident that Daniel isn’t sending him malicious software which could break his computer. For distributed computing to work, there must be a foolproof and hackproof way for Carl and Daniel to trust each another to keep to their side of the bargain.

Servers
Creative Commons License photo: JohnSeb

Thirdly, Daniel must actually be able to cut his costs. Let me explain. It’s possible that Daniel will have his computer on 24/7 anyway. That is, it’ll cost him £2 whether he’s runs the model or not. If he’s leaving his computer running at 100% but idle and still asks Carl to run the model for him, he essentially pays for the model to be run twice. My computer doesn’t dynamically underclock so whether or not I’m using it, it’s eating up the same amount of energy. For distributed computing to work, our own computers must make much more efficient use of resources. We need to have thin-client computers with neglible costs.

The real world

Distributed computing hasn’t taken off yet on any large scale. The three conditions don’t yet exist:

  • We need fast, reliable network connections and software compatibility. This definitely doesn’t exist at the moment: I don’t trust my own network connection to be 99.9999% reliable. It’s OK for downloading files and sending e-mails but it needs to be good enough for me to be able to send entire computer programmes over the network in under a second. Additionally, software isn’t at the stage where it’s “write once, run anywhere”. We need standards, standards and standards.
  • There must be a foolproof and hackproof way for Carl and Daniel to trust each another to keep to their side of the bargain. There is no way I would let anybody run a piece of software on my computer without me checking it first. If I had to pre-approve every single piece of software, that adds to the transaction costs which I discuss. Virtual machines are one way we can get around this issue by creating safe ways to isolate software and to track it’s progress. Still, I’m not sure if there is a secure way to run software on a computer with the confidence that the owner of the computer can’t take a peek. And I’m not sure if we’ll ever reach the point where people will happily allow third-parties to run software on their computer and have no possible way to find out what it’s doing.
  • We need to have thin-client computers with negligible costs. I’ve already debunked this one. My computer uses exactly the same amount of power whether it’s active or idle. I don’t believe that people will drop the idea of “a computer on every desk in every home” until they are confident the first two criteria have been met. Only then will they accept owning a thin-client computer.

It’s already being used…

Last year I worked at a company which employed distributed computing on a smaller scale. They had a small cluster (~20 computers) with identical hardware, each linked with Gigabit Ethernet. Software ran inside virtual machines and those virtual machines moved around between computers depending on the amount of spare capacity each one had.

The reason why they could employ distributed computing is because within their own system, they knew that:

  • They had a reliable intranet connection and because all the computers were identical software worked on every single computer.
  • Because they only ran a limited number of programmes and all the computers were under their own control, there were no trust issues.

DSCN1751
Creative Commons License photo: Petrick2008

Distributed and grid computing isn’t yet practical on a worldwide scale but I think we’re making progress. Networks are becoming more reliable. Software platforms appear to be becoming more standardised. Virtual machines are coming of age. And our computers are becoming more environmentally concious and adapting their resource usage to the amount of processing power required.

So there is the blueprint to how we can lower the costs of computing. You might be wondering what that’s got to do with the environment. Well, simply replace the £ sign with Joules of energy. Like free-market trade can leads to an efficient allocation of resources in the real world, the trade of computer time in a distributed grid of computers leads to a more efficient allocation of computing resources. And that lowers the energy consumption of computing and it’s environmental impact.

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Social Capital and Social Networking

Colombia, the only risk is wanting to stay
Creative Commons License photo: *L*u*z*a*

There is some fascinating research from Michigan State University about the use of online social networking sites by college students and the effect on their social capital. For non-economists, social capital is one of the three types of capital or “wealth”. The other two types are physical capital (what you own e.g. a computer, machines, money) and human capital (skills, experience). The third type of capital is your social connections - or social capital.

The study found that Facebook allows people to keep in contact with communities more efficiently, hence increasing their social capital. The authors of the study wrote, “Social capital has been linked to a variety of positive social outcomes, such as better public health, lower crime rates, and more efficient financial markets.” In addition, there was a correlation between Facebook usage and psychological well-being.

Of course, Facebook started off as a social networking site for college students only. Hence, it encouraged people to develop their relationships with people within their local college communities and people who they know offline which is more useful social capital than that which would be gained through forums and sites such as Digg.

Mindless
Creative Commons License photo: Kate_A

The study goes on to look at two different types of social capital: bonding (cementing networks of homogenous groups of people) and bridging (social networks of socially heterogeneous groups of people). The argument is that some types of social capital are bad: criminal gangs, racist and extremist groups have high levels of bonding capital. The study found that Facebook tends to generate the good type of social capital: bridging.

Perhaps my criticism of the study is how it can be shown that Facebook causes an increase in social capital. To me, it seems pretty likely also that people with greater social capital will be more likely to sign up to Facebook.

But it’s certainly an interesting study. There certainly hasn’t been much study in the general area but I think it’s an area which needs studying: just as the web allowed us to enhance our human capital by learning more about different kinds of things, the social web will allow us to enhance social capital.

The “social web” may have drastic implications for our society and economy.

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A Utopian Star Trek Society - Making Economics Redundant

les années sans lumiere
Creative Commons License photo: izarbeltza

The society of Star Trek invented by Gene Roddenberry is sometimes held up by fans as something we should strive towards. In the Star Trek universe, they don’t use money: people strive towards bettering themselves and humanity. Doesn’t that sound like communism to you?

If we tried to apply these principles in our world today, it certainly wouldn’t work. That’s been demonstrated in communism. Money is a much better way to carry out transactions than bartering: with bartering there needs to be a double-coincidence of wants. A baker may barter a few loaves of bread in exchange for a haircut with a hairdresser. Now, the baker only needs his hair cut once every month or two. Between haircuts, the hairdresser has nothing to barter and thus cannot have any bread on the table.

As for striving towards bettering ourselves and humanity? It doesn’t work in communism: communism gives people incentives to do as little as possible as they aren’t individually rewarded. Free-market economics (or capitalism) works simply because it gives people individual incentives to work and perform better: wages for workers, profits for companies and dividends for shareholders. Economics uses the fact that people act in their own self-interest to lead to an optimal outcome for society. I’d argue that economics is the single most important invention ever: one which paved the way for science, technology and pretty much every single aspect of life we experience today.

I was watching Visions of the Future on the BBC the other day and it did lead me to wonder whether we might be on the verge of this Star Trek age where we might be able to do without money. There are two bits of technology which I believe would allow this to happen.

totality bites
Creative Commons License photo: mugley

First of all, nuclear fusion. Nuclear fusion promises to be an abundant source of energy which is inexhaustible. Limitless and pollution-free, nuclear fusion could render the assumption of scarcity in economics out of date (that society doesn’t have enough resources to meet human wants). With an infinite amount of energy, we could do anything: mitigate global warming, travel to other planets, whatever we like.

Secondly, molecular assemblers or “replicators” as they are known in Star Trek. The development of replicators depends on further research into nanotechnology but the promise is that they can produce more or less anything at the touch of a button by constructing objects atom by atom. The only limitations would be the amount of energy required to replicate the objects and knowing what we want to produce with them.

Many scientists believe that nuclear fusion and molecular assemblers are both viable technologies and may only be about 50 years away.

In a world with limitless energy and the means to create anything that we wanted, nothing is scarce. We could immediately create anything that we want in order to fulfill our wants and needs. And it’s that fact which would render economics redundant. If everything costs nothing to make, why would you need money?

Passage
Creative Commons License photo: fdecomite

So what would be the effect of such technologies on society? Wealth is more or less meaningless and there is no reason for money to exist, so there will be no such things as city stock traders or economists. In fact, anyone working in the primary and secondary sectors would be made redundant by replicators. The important people in such a society would be the scientists and engineers: in a world where we aren’t limited by resources, we are only limited by our ideas. Scientists and engineers are the people who will come up with those new ideas.

At first glance, the utopian society as described in ‘Star Trek’ can seem like a communist society which would never function in the real world. I believe that today we are beginning to see the glimpses of technology which would bring society into a new age where we are no longer constrained by resources, scarcity and economics. The only constraints would be our ideas and dreams. Gene Roddenberry’s dream of our futuristic society might not seem so farfetched afterall.

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Why is popcorn at the cinema so expensive?

Popcorn
Creative Commons License photo: PPDIGITAL

Why is popcorn at the cinema so expensive? At my local cinema, you’d expect to pay about £3 ($6) for some popcorn or about £8 ($16) for a meal deal including maybe a hot dog and nachos. This is absolutely extortionate given you can get popcorn for a third of the price at the supermarket just across the road and for £8 you could get a decent sit-down meal at a good restaurant.

So is this a rip off for consumers? In this article, I discuss the issue of expensive popcorn, how it can be explained with price targeting and suggest that isn’t a rip off at all.

A cup of coffee…

Let us imagine a cup of coffee which costs £1 to produce.

There are 6 consumers who all value the cup of coffee differently. Person A is willing to pay £1 for a cup of coffee, going all the way up to Person F who would be willing to pay £3.50 for a cup of coffee.

The shop decides to charge £2 for a cup of coffee so for every cup of coffee sold the shop makes a profit of £1. As we can see in the table, Persons A and B would not buy the coffee because it costs more than what they would be willing to pay. 4 people would buy the coffee, giving the shop a total profit of £4.

pricetarget1.gif

Let’s increase the price…

Of course, the owner of the coffee shop wants to increase his profits. So he could increase the price of a cup of coffee: say to £2.50.

pricetarget2.gif

What’s happened? Well, Person C no longer wants to buy a cup of coffee as it would cost more than they were willing to pay. Persons D, E and F will continue to buy the cup of coffee. The coffee shop sells 3 cups of coffee and makes a total profit of £4.50. The downside is that Person C no longer has access to a cup of coffee.

We could try increasing the prices further with the aim of trying to increase profit. If the price of coffee rose to £3, the profit on each cup of coffee is £2. But only Persons E and F would buy it, giving a total profit of £4.

As we can see, the optimal price to charge is £2.50. This would give the coffee shop maximum profit without using price targeting.

What if we use price targeting?

My argument lies around “price targeting”. What exactly is price targeting? It means charging people exactly what they are willing to pay. Take the following scenario:

pricetarget3.gif

So what has happened here?

Well, every single person now has access to a cup of coffee at the price that they would be willing to pay. Not only that, but the shop has managed to increase it’s profit to £7.50: almost double what it could have made without price targeting.

Leakages

But there is a big problem with this plan which economists call “leakages”. How can the firm know exactly how much customers are willing to pay? They could ask the customers but everyone would say they were willing to pay the bare minimum figure: £1. Because who would pay more than they would have to for some coffee? So we end up with the following scenario where everybody ends up paying the bare minimum:

pricetarget4.gif

Everyone has access to a cup of coffee. But it costs £1 to make a cup of coffee and everybody pays £1: the shop owner makes no profit at all.

The problem with this form of price targeting is that people will find ways to abuse the system. Everybody will pay the bare minimum. This is why you won’t see it used this way in practice: when was the last time you sat down at a restaurant where you could pay however much or little as you wanted?

There are several ways that companies can implement price targeting without explicitly asking you how much you’d be willing to pay. I would like to argue that popcorn at the cinema is one example.

Popcorn as a form of price targeting

Midnight theater
Creative Commons License photo: Midnight-digital

At the start of this article, I said that popcorn was a form of price targeting. Why?

Everybody would love popcorn and a drink to go with a film. If you don’t believe me ask yourself the following question: if I was given a free popcorn and drink with my cinema ticket would I take it? For most people, the answer will be a resounding yes.

Let’s say it costs the cinema £5 to screen Indiana Jones. For £9 my local cinema could provide everyone with a film and a popcorn.  For every ticket sold, they make a profit of £4. But instead they offer two options:

£7 - Film Only
£10 - Film and Popcorn

Let us imagine a customer who is willing to pay £8 to see Indiana Jones. In the original scenario without price targeting, everybody is charged £9. Since he is only willing to pay £8, he won’t go to the cinema: it’s too expensive. But if the cinema offered a £7 option, he will now decide to go. The cinema will make a £2 profit.

Let us imagine another customer willing to pay £12. He will go for the “film and popcorn” option at £10. It’s essentially exactly the same product: the popcorn only costs pennies to produce. But there is sufficient difference between the two options that the customer won’t “leak” into the £7 group.

Jazz. Cool.
Creative Commons License photo: DMBFreakNo41

Why aren’t you allowed to take your own food and drink into the cinema? Because that’d cause £10 customers to “leak” into the £7 group.

Conclusion

Popcorn is a form of price targeting: a way of charging people the amount they are willing to pay. I have shown that this not only leads to increased profits for the cinema chain, it also means the cinema is affordable to a lot more people. Of course popcorn doesn’t cost £3 to produce. But that expensive popcorn serves an important purpose in allowing price targeting to work. Ultimately, consumers benefit from great access to the cinema.

Based on research from an article at Physorg.

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£100,000 - the real cost of going to university

nature x2
Creative Commons License photo: B a m s h a d

As a student currently embarking on a university degree, I’m looking forward to the freedom university will offer and meeting a whole bunch of new people from across the world. But one major worry is the finance: the cost of going to university.

Many people only look at tuition fees when they think about going to university. In the UK, university tuition is roughly £3,000 a year. For a 4 year masters degree course, this adds up to £12,000.

Tuition Fees: £12,000

 

But there’s the cost of accommodation, which is typically at least as large as the tuition costs. The cost of accommodation varies. In some of the larger cities, a room will typically cost £120/week. In some smaller town universities, £80/week might be closer to the norm. A 40-week let on university accommodation will set you back £4,000 a year. However, in later years of university, most students will live outside of university halls and this will be more expensive. Assuming an average accommodation cost of £4,500 per year, this adds up to £18,000 over a 4 year degree course.

Accommodation Cost: £18,000

 

sheffield, hidden sunrise
Creative Commons License photo: paolo màrgari

There is a much bigger cost which most people don’t even think about. Because studying at university and getting a full-time job are mutually exclusive options, by choosing to go to university you are actually saying “I will not be going to work” as well as “I will be going to university”. Economists call this the opportunity cost.

By choosing to study at university, you are foregoing 4 years of salary which you would have earnt otherwise. The typical starting salary for somebody leaving school with A-Levels but no university degree is £15,000 a year. By working, you’d potentially have earnt £60,000.

Opportunity Cost: £60,000

 

The other significant cost which needs to be considered is housing. Over the last few years, house prices in the UK have been rising by about 10% a year. What this means is that a house which will cost £100,000 today will cost £110,000 this time next year. Leaving university with £30,000 of debt and without £60,000 of salary means that university graduates must wait even longer before they can put together a deposit and get a foot on the housing ladder. On top of that, graduates may have to take out a larger mortgage on their first home because they cannot make a large upfront payment. Obviously, the appreciation in housing value depends on market conditions, but I think £10,000 is a reasonable ballpark estimate.

Housing Appreciation Cost: £10,000

 

So to sum it all up, when we take in all the costs of university:

£3,000 a year for tuition X 4 years = £12,000
£4,500 a year for accommodation X 4 years = £18,000
Direct Financial Costs: £30,000

£15,000 a year could have earnt in basic non-graduate job X 4 years = £60,000
Opportunity Cost: £60,000

House price rise in the additional time you must wait before buying = £10,000 (obviously this depends on whether house prices are rising)
Housing Appreciation Cost: £10,000

Total Cost of going to university: £100,000

It’s pretty depressing reading. University is a very, very expensive enterprise. It’s easy to see from these calculations why so many lower income families find it very difficult to send their children to university.

Flying Caps
Creative Commons License photo: Thiru Murugan

But I think it also calls into question whether it’s worth going to university to study certain degrees. According to the government’s graduate prospects website, graduates in humanities earn £51,549 more in their lifetime and graduates in arts earn £34,949 more. Are the real costs of going to university greater than the benefits?

On average for all degree courses, those who graduate from university earn on average £160,000 more over their lifetime. This would still seem to indicate that going to university is good value for money. But the net benefit is probably less than people would think.

I really don’t want to put anybody off studying at university and I don’t think money should ever stop anybody from pursuing their dreams. But what is true is that going to university is an extremely expensive enterprise these days and students may be getting a bit of a raw deal.

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