Posts Tagged IM

The Six Degrees of Separation - Now Just Three

Steps and Shadows
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Some fascinating research by mobile communications company O2 found that the six degrees of separation (the theory everyone in the world can be linked in six steps) have fallen to just three due to modern telecommunications and social networking. However, instead of simply looking at the networks of friends, family and work, O2’s study also considers shared interest networks.

All respondents were asked to make contact with an unknown person from destinations selected at random from across the globe using only personal connections. By using their shared interest networks the participants were able, on average, to make the connection in three person-to-person links.

For example, one of the respondents Katrina, 27 from Brighton, is a classical musician and leads a jazz band. She was asked to make contact with a Japanese jazz singer, Natsuo Murakami, halfway across the world. She contacted her record producer in Berlin via an email. He called his opposite number in Tokyo who had a register of all jazz singers in the country. Therefore making the link from Katrina to Natsuo in three personal steps.

According to O2, email and mobile phones had the most significant impact in reducing the degrees of separation to three.

The worlds network
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Great research. I must admit I’ve been astounded by some connections I’ve discovered over the last year or two. My summer job boss happened to be one of my physics tutor’s PHD supervisors. My previous boss was the PHD supervisor of one of my physics teachers when they were at university a hundred miles away. My previous boss was also working with one of my university astronomy lecturers. A flatmate of one of my best friends at university (about 250 miles away) happens to be a friend of mine and they certainly didn’t meet each another through me!.

Thinking about my own networks - having met many politicians including Boris Johnson, I’m no more than two steps away from Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Queen and so on. I certainly have Vladimir Putin, George Bush and Sarkozy in my three degrees of separation. Celebrity wise: I’m no more than two degrees of separation from Kylie Minogue, Tim Henman, Hayden Panettiere, Emma Watson, David Tennant… again, it’s quite concievable that a large number of actors and celebrities are within my three degrees. Pretty amazing.

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Appearing Offline on MSN/Windows Live Messenger: Game Theory Analysis

Peek-a-boo!
Creative Commons License photo: jenn_jenn

A few years ago, Microsoft introduced the ability to “hide” on Appear Offline on MSN Messenger and to keep talking to people. This is quite a useful feature for the anti-social types who really don’t want anybody to talk to them!

I’ve noticed some interesting trends since this feature has been introduced. The people who used to have their status stuck on “away” now use appear offline. This is perhaps frustrating when you then end up calling or texting at extortionate rates your friend instead whilst you’re actually both sitting at your computer!

The reason why people use “appear offline” is so they can be selective about who they talk to. Fair enough. But when other people also use “appear offline”, it doesn’t work. This could be illustrated using a bit of game theory.

Appear Offline

Initially, lets say that both persons A and B gain 2 units of utility from being online in MSN Messenger. This utility could be in many forms: pleasure gained from sharing gossip, money saved in not having to text or time saved. The exact form of the utility isn’t important.

Let’s go into hiding… 

grandmaster FLAX ~ II
Creative Commons License photo: striatic

Now lets say Person A decides to “Appear Offline” but Person B is still “Online”. Person A will only talk to Person B when it is beneficial to him. Person A will still gossip with Person B but only in times convenient to himself and when he’s stuck on his particle physics essay, he can still see when Person B is online and get help from him. For this reason, Person A’s utility increases from 2 to 3.

But Person B won’t derive any utility. When he needs somebody to talk to, or has run into a brick wall upgrading to Service Pack 3, he won’t be able to get through to Person A on MSN Messenger. Instead, he might end up calling or find a more sociable person to talk to! Hence Person B derives no utility from this arrangement.

Notice that the payoffs are symmetrical. If Person B decides to “Appear Offline” but Person A doesn’t, Person B will gain 3 units of utility whilst Person A will gain nil.

The fourth possible situation is when both Persons A and B decide to “Appear Offline”. Neither persons derives any utility from this arrangement as they’ll never talk to each another. They might as well actually be offline.

The best arrangement 

Holy Rollers
Creative Commons License photo: J. Random

As we can see, in this analysis the best possible outcome is that both persons A and B are online. They both derive 2 units of utility from this arrangement and 4 units of utility are gained in total.

Person A or person B could seek to increase the utility they gain by appearing offline. This increases their own utility to 3 units. Would they do this in reality? Rationally, probably yes.

If person A decided to stay “online”, person B would gain 2 units of utility from staying online and 3 units from appearing offline. So in this situation, person B should appear offline to maximise their own payoff.

If person A decided to “appear offline”, person B gains no utility either way. So it really doesn’t matter whether person B stays online or appears offline. But they don’t lose any utility by appearing offline.

By considering all the possible outcomes, person B will rationally choose to appear offline to maximise their payoff. As the situation is symmetrical, person A should also rationally choose to appear offline. The outcome? Both persons A and B “appear offline” and nobody gains any utility.

Back to the real world…

In this discussion and game theory model, I’ve abstracted from reality. Of course, it isn’t true that everybody on MSN Messenger appears offline these days. But I will say that amongst my contact list, I know quite a few people do and it has lead to some annoying situations. I’m even guilty of “appearing offline” on many occasions without realising the person I want to talk to is also appearing offline and waiting for me to come online.

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